Author: Ross Murray, Ben Johnson, Megan Hart, Shahrukh Nawaz

In the past 40 years, life expectancy has increased significantly as a result of a range of factors, including advancements in cardiovascular treatments and reduction in smoking prevalence. Looking forward, what will drive future longevity trends? Considering the main forces which are likely to affect mortality can be a beneficial exercise for firms when setting mortality assumptions. In this article, we consider the positive (“tailwinds”) and negative (“headwinds”) drivers, as well as the benefits of using this driver-based approach. Future Trend Expectation The CMI Mortality projection model is the tool predominantly used in the industry to express mortality trend assumptions.…