Author: Vince Granieri

A few months ago, Life Risk News published my commentary article regarding life expectancy (LE) apocrypha. Given the positive feedback I received, I decided to write a follow-up, focusing on industry suppositions about actual to expected analysis (A-to-E), no stranger to controversy over the years.   Although many philosophies and theories about LEs have been proffered by life expectancy providers, virtually every type of participant in the life settlement market has contributed to the apocrypha surrounding actual to expected analysis.   Let’s first define actual to expected analysis. According to the actuarial profession, it is the process of calculating and analyzing A/E…

Read More

I find it interesting to draw parallels between theories we see in the Life Expectancy space and what was considered state-of-the-art medical treatment throughout history. Procedures once considered vital have been studied and debunked as unsafe. For example: bloodletting, a medical procedure widely accepted by ancient Egyptians, Greeks, Romans, was still used in the 18th century. Bloodletting was performed on George Washington in December 1799, likely hastening his death. It persisted across centuries as an accepted medical practice despite its extremely harmful effects.   Similarly, certain misguided philosophies and theories have been proffered by life expectancy providers, and some are still…

Read More

Like many things in life, longevity markets have followed broad cycles. Industry veterans will remember a particularly painful turn in late 2008, when new information regarding life settlement population mortality was reflected in industry life expectancies. In response, some industry players adapted better than others. In 2019, there was another market downturn, and those who learned from 2008 were rewarded. Covid-19 has provided an opportunity for the industry to demonstrate what we have learned – but will we? We have been recently inundated with data about Covid-19 and its effects on mortality. Some of this information is applicable to life…

Read More